Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok
Identifieur interne : 001679 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001678; suivant : 001680Synchrony of Dengue Incidence in Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok
Auteurs : Cuong Hoang Quoc [Viêt Nam] ; Salje Henrik [États-Unis, France] ; Rodriguez-Barraquer Isabel [États-Unis] ; Yoon In-Kyu [Corée du Sud, Thaïlande] ; Nguyen Van Vinh Chau [Viêt Nam] ; Nguyen Thanh Hung [Viêt Nam] ; Ha Manh Tuan [Viêt Nam] ; Phan Trong Lan [Viêt Nam] ; Bridget Willis [Viêt Nam] ; Ananda Nisalak [Thaïlande] ; Siripen Kalayanarooj [Thaïlande] ; Derek A. T. Cummings [États-Unis] ; Cameron P. Simmons [Viêt Nam, Australie]Source :
- PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases [ 1935-2727 ] ; 2016.
Abstract
Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.
We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.
Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. Low correlation in serotype distribution suggests that similar built environments, vector populations and climate, rather than viral flow drives these observations.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005188
PubMed: 28033384
PubMed Central: 5199033
Affiliations:
- Australie, Corée du Sud, France, Thaïlande, Viêt Nam, États-Unis
- Floride, Maryland, Région capitale de Séoul, Victoria (État), Île-de-France
- Melbourne, Paris, Séoul
- Université de Melbourne
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wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Henrik, Salje" sort="Henrik, Salje" uniqKey="Henrik S" first="Salje" last="Henrik">Salje Henrik</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff004"><addr-line>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institute Pasteur, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institute Pasteur, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff005"><addr-line>CNRS, URA3012, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>CNRS, URA3012, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff006"><addr-line>Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">France</country><wicri:regionArea>Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="region">Île-de-France</region><region type="old region">Île-de-France</region><settlement type="city">Paris</settlement></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Isabel, Rodriguez Barraquer" sort="Isabel, Rodriguez Barraquer" uniqKey="Isabel R" first="Rodriguez-Barraquer" last="Isabel">Rodriguez-Barraquer Isabel</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="In Kyu, Yoon" sort="In Kyu, Yoon" uniqKey="In Kyu Y" first="Yoon" last="In-Kyu">Yoon In-Kyu</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff007"><addr-line>International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Corée du Sud</country><wicri:regionArea>International Vaccine Institute, Seoul</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Séoul</settlement><region type="capital">Région capitale de Séoul</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff008"><addr-line>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Thaïlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bangkok</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh" sort="Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh" uniqKey="Chau N" first="Nguyen Van Vinh" last="Chau">Nguyen Van Vinh Chau</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff009"><addr-line>Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hung, Nguyen Thanh" sort="Hung, Nguyen Thanh" uniqKey="Hung N" first="Nguyen Thanh" last="Hung">Nguyen Thanh Hung</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff010"><addr-line>Children’s Hospital No. 1, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Children’s Hospital No. 1, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Tuan, Ha Manh" sort="Tuan, Ha Manh" uniqKey="Tuan H" first="Ha Manh" last="Tuan">Ha Manh Tuan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff011"><addr-line>Children’s Hospital No. 2, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Children’s Hospital No. 2, District 1, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Lan, Phan Trong" sort="Lan, Phan Trong" uniqKey="Lan P" first="Phan Trong" last="Lan">Phan Trong Lan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff001"><addr-line>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Pasteur Institute in Ho Chi Minh City, 167 Pasteur, district 3, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Willis, Bridget" sort="Willis, Bridget" uniqKey="Willis B" first="Bridget" last="Willis">Bridget Willis</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nisalak, Ananda" sort="Nisalak, Ananda" uniqKey="Nisalak A" first="Ananda" last="Nisalak">Ananda Nisalak</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff008"><addr-line>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Thaïlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Bangkok</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bangkok</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Kalayanarooj, Siripen" sort="Kalayanarooj, Siripen" uniqKey="Kalayanarooj S" first="Siripen" last="Kalayanarooj">Siripen Kalayanarooj</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff012"><addr-line>Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok, Thailand</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Thaïlande</country><wicri:regionArea>Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health, Bangkok</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bangkok</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff003"><addr-line>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Maryland</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff013"><addr-line>Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Floride</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Simmons, Cameron P" sort="Simmons, Cameron P" uniqKey="Simmons C" first="Cameron P." last="Simmons">Cameron P. Simmons</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff002"><addr-line>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Viêt Nam</country><wicri:regionArea>Oxford University Clinical Research Unit, Hospital for Tropical Diseases, District 5, Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Ho Chi Minh City</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff014"><addr-line>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria, Australia</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Australie</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Victoria</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Melbourne</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Melbourne</settlement><region type="état">Victoria (État)</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases</title><idno type="ISSN">1935-2727</idno><idno type="eISSN">1935-2735</idno><imprint><date when="2016">2016</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec id="sec001"><title>Background</title><p>Ho Chi Minh City and Bangkok are highly dengue endemic. The extent to which disease patterns are attributable to local versus regional dynamics remains unclear. To address this gap we compared key transmission parameters across the locations.</p></sec><sec id="sec002"><title>Methods and Principal Findings</title><p>We used 2003–2009 age-stratified case data to inform catalytic transmission models. Further, we compared the spatial clustering of serotypes within each city. We found that annual case numbers were highly consistent across the two cities (correlation of 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74–0.79) as was the annual force of infection (correlation of 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46–0.68). Serotypes were less similar with serotype-specific correlations ranging from 0.65 for DENV1 to -0.14 for DENV4. Significant spatial clustering of serotypes was observed in HCMC at distances <500m, similar to previous observations from Bangkok.</p></sec><sec id="sec003"><title>Discussions</title><p>Dengue dynamics are comparable across these two hubs. 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Recker</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Australie</li><li>Corée du Sud</li><li>France</li><li>Thaïlande</li><li>Viêt Nam</li><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Floride</li><li>Maryland</li><li>Région capitale de Séoul</li><li>Victoria (État)</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Melbourne</li><li>Paris</li><li>Séoul</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Melbourne</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Viêt Nam"><noRegion><name sortKey="Hoang Quoc, Cuong" sort="Hoang Quoc, Cuong" uniqKey="Hoang Quoc C" first="Cuong" last="Hoang Quoc">Cuong Hoang Quoc</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh" sort="Chau, Nguyen Van Vinh" uniqKey="Chau N" first="Nguyen Van Vinh" last="Chau">Nguyen Van Vinh Chau</name><name sortKey="Hoang Quoc, Cuong" sort="Hoang Quoc, Cuong" uniqKey="Hoang Quoc C" first="Cuong" last="Hoang Quoc">Cuong Hoang Quoc</name><name sortKey="Hung, Nguyen Thanh" sort="Hung, Nguyen Thanh" uniqKey="Hung N" first="Nguyen Thanh" last="Hung">Nguyen Thanh Hung</name><name sortKey="Lan, Phan Trong" sort="Lan, Phan Trong" uniqKey="Lan P" first="Phan Trong" last="Lan">Phan Trong Lan</name><name sortKey="Simmons, Cameron P" sort="Simmons, Cameron P" uniqKey="Simmons C" first="Cameron P." last="Simmons">Cameron P. Simmons</name><name sortKey="Tuan, Ha Manh" sort="Tuan, Ha Manh" uniqKey="Tuan H" first="Ha Manh" last="Tuan">Ha Manh Tuan</name><name sortKey="Willis, Bridget" sort="Willis, Bridget" uniqKey="Willis B" first="Bridget" last="Willis">Bridget Willis</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Maryland"><name sortKey="Henrik, Salje" sort="Henrik, Salje" uniqKey="Henrik S" first="Salje" last="Henrik">Salje Henrik</name></region><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name><name sortKey="Cummings, Derek A T" sort="Cummings, Derek A T" uniqKey="Cummings D" first="Derek A. T." last="Cummings">Derek A. T. Cummings</name><name sortKey="Isabel, Rodriguez Barraquer" sort="Isabel, Rodriguez Barraquer" uniqKey="Isabel R" first="Rodriguez-Barraquer" last="Isabel">Rodriguez-Barraquer Isabel</name></country><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Henrik, Salje" sort="Henrik, Salje" uniqKey="Henrik S" first="Salje" last="Henrik">Salje Henrik</name></region><name sortKey="Henrik, Salje" sort="Henrik, Salje" uniqKey="Henrik S" first="Salje" last="Henrik">Salje Henrik</name><name sortKey="Henrik, Salje" sort="Henrik, Salje" uniqKey="Henrik S" first="Salje" last="Henrik">Salje Henrik</name></country><country name="Corée du Sud"><region name="Région capitale de Séoul"><name sortKey="In Kyu, Yoon" sort="In Kyu, Yoon" uniqKey="In Kyu Y" first="Yoon" last="In-Kyu">Yoon In-Kyu</name></region></country><country name="Thaïlande"><noRegion><name sortKey="In Kyu, Yoon" sort="In Kyu, Yoon" uniqKey="In Kyu Y" first="Yoon" last="In-Kyu">Yoon In-Kyu</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Kalayanarooj, Siripen" sort="Kalayanarooj, Siripen" uniqKey="Kalayanarooj S" first="Siripen" last="Kalayanarooj">Siripen Kalayanarooj</name><name sortKey="Nisalak, Ananda" sort="Nisalak, Ananda" uniqKey="Nisalak A" first="Ananda" last="Nisalak">Ananda Nisalak</name></country><country name="Australie"><region name="Victoria (État)"><name sortKey="Simmons, Cameron P" sort="Simmons, Cameron P" uniqKey="Simmons C" first="Cameron P." last="Simmons">Cameron P. 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